Archive

Tag Archives: giants

As some of you know, both Ryan and I studied politics at Cal and now work in it in different capacities. Politics and baseball are some of the most interesting things to us, and we have noticed many ways that the two tend to overlap. For this reason, I am starting a new running series entitled “Politics and Baseball” that will hopefully be as entertaining for you as it is for me. Future themes will involve the use of political sabermetrics, which is a term I’ve been playing around with in my head for a while, but for right now I am going to write about how trades and deals that are made throughout the year between baseball teams reflect the way that deals get done in Sacramento or Washington.

Trade Blocking

The NL West is all jammed up. All 5 teams are technically still in contention, with the Dodgers and Giants underperforming, the D Backs playing well, and the Padres and Rockies surprising some people.

NL West Standings

Because the standings are so tight, with the year half over, there is no clear “seller” or “buyer.” Everyone is still willing to make a deal that improves their team, and no team is looking to mortgage this season to start rebuilding for next year yet. So, with this backdrop, enter Ricky Nolasco. There are, of course, many pitchers that are rumored to be moving teams soon (Bud Norris, Jordan Lyles, Matt Garza, etc.), but Nolasco represents a special case in that his contract is up at the end of this year, the Marlins have no hope of contending this year, and the Marlins have come out and said whoever takes on the rest of Nolasco’s contract can get him first without giving up top-tier prospects.

All 5 of the contending NL West teams (except maybe Arizona) need starting pitching help right now. The Giants rotation is not as vaunted as it once was, the Dodgers entered the year with 8 starters but are down to 3 or 4 capable ones at this point, the Rockies staff is performing well, but they need some help on the backend with no true ace, and the Padres have had their share of injury troubles as well. For these reasons, everyone in the NL West seems to be in on Nolasco, but his salary is not low (half a season at $11.5 million) and that his contract expires at the end of year making him just a rental, meaning that a team has to make a conscious decision that they are going to try and contend for this year before making a move for him.

You’d be angry too if you had to pitch for the Marlins. Photo courtesy: blogs.sun-sentinel.com

This is where money comes in handy. As in politics, money cannot win you a race alone, but it certainly helps. The Dodgers seem to still have money to burn from their lucrative TV contract and Magic Johnson trust fund, meaning they find themselves at an advantageous position. Though the Dodgers are technically in last place, they are only 6.5 games back of first, and thanks to their extra cash supply, they can afford to make a move for Nolasco now, blocking the other teams in the West. Assuming Nolasco does well, the Dodgers can simultaneously help themselves and prevent a good player from winding up on a rival.

In California state politics, there is a June 30 filing deadline for all California legislative candidates. This deadline marks the first time that a candidate discloses how much money he/she has raised. Besides keeping them honest, it is there to show viability and give an idea of who the frontrunners in a race might be. By making a move for Nolasco now, the Dodgers can show viability that, despite their place in the standings, they are a contending team and one that intends to do everything possible to get to October. In the same way that a political candidate can dissuade other challengers from running by starting off strong with lots of donations and endorsements, so can the Dodgers dissuade some of the other teams in the West, such as the Padres and Rockies, from getting too confident in their current position and making moves that might improve their club before the deadline. Obviously, it will be tough to dissuade the Giants from contending in the same way that an incumbent who is down in the polls would still want to run for re-election. Still, wrapping up early endorsements from star players can definitely help improve your chances.

There is a lot of campaign left, and the race is still wide open, but whichever team makes the move for Nolasco the soonest gives themselves a huge advantage for the rest of the year. It is low-risk in that Nolasco is a proven innings eater and that the Marlins have said they won’t require big-name prospects in exchange. And more importantly, the longer Nolasco is on a team other than the Marlins, the more chances he has to help that club. He is wasting wins on the Marlins currently, and the sooner a team goes out and gets him, the sooner he becomes a productive member of that team and starts generating wins. This type of move should be made more often in the major leagues, but many teams are risk-adverse and like to wait until the trading deadline when they have a clearer picture. For just this reason, the Dodgers, or any other team in the West that is willing to take on his contract, can improve themselves now by trading for Nolasco. This will give the team that gets him the best chance of making the playoffs, while dissuading other candidates from running. Whichever team makes a conscious effort to improve themselves first puts themselves in the best position to contend in October. My bet is the team that goes out and gets Nolasco now will be the one you see in the playoffs come seasons end.

The Fastball

By: Matt

Spring Training stats don’t matter. You hear the phrase uttered by broadcaster and bleacher bum alike. For rookies and grizzled veterans trying to make a big league roster for the first (or last) time, having a “good” spring is very important. Putting up good numbers during spring training is an important part of winning a job, but hitting .400 is just as meaningless as hitting .125 once April 1st comes around. Major Leaguers who aren’t trying to win a job use the spring as a “tune-up.” Starters will work on a specific pitch, relievers will try and get better at pitching in certain situations, and hitters will tinker with their swings. If these tinkerings work and a player puts up good numbers then great, but for the players themselves, they could care less about their final spring numbers, because  everyone goes back to 0 once the season starts.

Let’s take a couple case studies. Brandon Belt has been having an awesome spring for the Giants and he looks primed for a breakout. He is currently raking with a .410 batting average and 8 homers. So, he must be about to have a breakout season right? Well it turns out the Baby Giraffe has done this every spring. In 2012 he hit .378 and in 2011 he hit well enough to win the job, as shown in the Showtime series The Franchise. Maybe Belt will have a breakout year, but it’s more likely to come from not having to challenge Aubrey Huff for playing time and less because of confidence heading into the season.

How about we look at 2012’s Spring Training batting title champion? No, it’s not Albert Pujols or Joey Votto, no Mike Trout or Ryan Braun. Ladies and gentlemen I present to you…drum roll please: Munenori Kawasaki. The shortstop made the jump from the Japanese Nippon league to the MLB easily in Spring Training and put up a .455 batting average. However, once the season rolled around Kawasaki batted under the Mendoza line at .192 and only appeared in 61 games for the Mariners. A great spring training did not translate into good season numbers for Mune, likely because while it was easy enough to wrap singles against inferior competition, the regular season brought on the best pitching in the world. Major league pitching is a tough adjustment for any player, especially one coming from a different country. Though he never quite figured it out with the bat during the regular season, Kawsaki remains the single most gifable player in the bigs and the best bench warmer any team could ask for.

This is how everybody celebrates a walkoff, right?

Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg both posted ERAs over 4 in Spring Training last year and went on to Cy Young-caliber seasons (or ¾ seasons). Pitchers often will work on a specific pitch or the timing of their delivery during spring training games, since bloated ERAs and losses don’t matter. Pitchers can also suffer from bad numbers thanks to the strict innings limit placed upon them. A starter may only pitch through a few innings for most of Spring Training so as to protect their arm and ward off injury.

In professional sports it is never a good thing to lose. A culture of winning is something to be fostered, and for baseball players, that culture starts in the spring. Winning Spring Training games can help a team to find their identity and some teams can carry that culture into the season, but this matters more towards the last few weeks of ST. For the first few weeks, players are getting back in the groove, meeting new teammates for the first time, and trying to work on certain things. A player can go 0 for 4 and still have a great day because they learned not to swing at a curveball on a certain count. Spring Training is just that, training. It’s a necessary part of the business, but has no real effect on the real thing. I, for one, am glad baseball is back for real. Happy Opening Day everybody!

Happy Baseball Season!

The Changeup

By: Ryan

It’s easy to say that spring training stats don’t matter. Players are returning to the game in various mental and physical states, and coaches are shifting lineups and splitting squads. With all this variance, it becomes hard to interpret stats and easy to disregard all spring training numbers. But there are certain “player-centric” stats that can be reliably used to highlight strong/troubled players, a fact that is especially valid at the beginning and end of a player’s career.

I use the term “player-centric” to describe stats that are influenced by the least number of players in the game. The fewer number of people that can influence that particular stat, the greater the individual player’s control is over that number. The difference between wins and quality starts displays the discrepancy between these two types of stats. Wins depend on the pitcher’s performance, the team offense, and the team defense. With more people involved, a pitcher can be robbed of a win with a poor team performance, ultimately masking a pitcher’s abilities. In comparison, quality starts rely solely on the pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters, and becomes a more accurate way to judge a season.

Some of the more reliable “player-centric” stats to quantify spring performances are K and BB percentages. Mike Podhorzer at Fangrpah.com did some regression analysis on these stats for pitchers and found that they are both correlated to regular season performance. This gives fans and scouts the ability to use these numbers to evaluate pitchers and pick better fantasy teams.

He goes even further to speculate that really strong performances should be valued higher than poor performances. His explanation being, “You cannot fluke your way into striking out a high percentage of hitters, but pitchers work on new pitches or their mechanics in the spring all the time and can easily explain a weak performance.”

While his regression model didn’t confirm this notion, another blogger found this speculation to be true. William Juliano at The Captain’s Blog looked at K/IP and K/BB ratios from the 2011 preseason and identified players with stats above a certain threshold as “potential breakout candidates.” A similar list was compiled of players that had spring stats below a threshold. They were labeled “potential breakdown candidates.”

Juliano found that the “breakout candidates'” stats translated better to the regular season. Based on the stats alone, his model correctly identified the breakout seasons of Craig Kimbrel, Ian Kennedy, and Justin Masterson.

BB and K ratios are also useful stats when it comes to hitting. The prime example being the Cuban minor leaguer, Yasiel Puig. The Dodger’s outfielder was relatively unknown prior to this year, since he missed most of 2012 with a staph infection. However, he recently left Glendale, Arizona with a .527 batting average in 55 at bats. With that number, he easily becomes one of the best outfielders in the game, but he lacks plate discipline. Puig struck out 15 times (27% of the time) and only walked four times, yet the Dodgers cited these numbers as a reason for sending him down at the end of March.

la-sp-0304-dodgers-20130304-001

Please come back Yasiel.

Still, in his 25 games, Puig made a name for himself and developed a reputation, indicating a greater importance on stats for the rookies. For rookies, these stats appear more significant. This is the first time that these players are able to face major league talent, and the baseball community winds up giving more weight to their numbers. This was the case with Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves, who in 6 games, posted a 1.04 ERA 3.89 K/BB ratio. At the beginning of spring, talk was he would wind up back in AAA, but a strong month proved to be enough, earning him the 5th starter role.

Players who are exiting their prime also see their stats heavily scrutinized. Roy Halladay is one player whose stats indicate a potential problem. He has seen his fastball velocity drop even lower than the already reduced high 80 fastball he had last season. It seems unlikely that his velocity will rebound during the season, which has fans worried throughout Philadelphia.

Players in their prime are usually immune from this scrutiny because their “player-centric” stats are traditionally in line with their career norms. But this isn’t always the case, as Tim Lincecum has recently been criticized for having velocity issues also. His fastball speed has been down and his pitch location isn’t as strong as it used to be, leading to speculation that his 2013 is going to look a lot like his 2012.

Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum

Can either of these guys bounce back?

The degree to which these “player-centric” stats are useful depend on the career arc of the player. The players whose stats receive the most scrutiny, justifiably so, are those player’s in their first couple of spring trainings and those exiting their prime. At the same time, they can confirm regressive tendencies with players in their prime.

As nice as it would be to disregard all preseason stats, certain spring training stats prove that they cant be ignored. It seems that spring isn’t just a time for celebrities to play baseball.

billy-crystal-749332

But still, who doesn’t love Billy Crystal?

The Fastball

By: Ryan

Even though the Oakland Athletics won the AL West last season, team owner, Lou Wolff, has not let the champagne bottles distort his goal of moving the team out of Oakland and into the South Bay. While there has only been one team that has changed cities in nearly 40 years, the move makes sense for both the Oakland Athletics and the City of San Jose.

The Oakland A’s have been struggling with a fan base that just doesn’t seem to want to turn out to games. Since the Barry Zito days (2005), the team has had yearly attendance in the bottom five of all MLB teams every year and was dead last in two of those seasons. Last year, even though the team came from behind to clinch the ALDS on the last day of the season, they still had the fourth worst attendance on the year, averaging only 20,000 fans per game. If we instead look at attendance percentage, the 2012 number looks pretty impressive at 60%. While this rating seems fairly high, the stadium is listed at only holding 35,000 people, with tarps blocking off an extra 20,000 seats that are usually full for Raiders games. Even though the relocation news is motivating the community to make awesome t-shirts and create buyer groups willing to commit to a downtown stadium, it doesn’t seem to have any effect on fan turn out. Unfortunately, the A’s simply can’t afford to stay in Oakland if turnout remains this low.

The timing makes sense as well, since the team is in need of a new stadium. Oakland Coliseum is considered one of the worst stadiums in the MLB, alongside Tropicana Field. Even Bud agrees with this statement. This concrete behemoth is the last multi-purpose stadium left in the United States, and the Mt. Davis facelift it received in 1996, turned the Coliseum into a football stadium that baseball teams play in. Instead of making a new Coliseum in Oakland, which would commit them to the area and obligate them to the taxpayers (if it were publicly funded), it makes more sense for the A’s to move now, so they can begin to develop and invest in their new community.

Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics

Mt. Davis is above the Center Field wall.

Economically, it makes the most sense for the A’s to move to San Jose. There is no doubt that the team would do wonders for the San Jose economy, reports indicate a $2.9 billion impact over 30 years. This type of money would make any city excited over the possibility of a MLB team moving within their lines. Additionally, the economic benefit to the A’s, although not as large, will surely do wonders for the competitiveness of the team. A move to San Jose would eliminate the team’s eligibility for revenue sharing dollars, which in recent seasons has been around $30 million. Yet, many expect the team to make millions more from ticket sales, concessions, and luxury seats, leaving the A’s in a far better position. This increased revenue will roll over into increased wins, finally giving the A’s the money to lock down their talent instead of shipping them to the Yankees.

swisher

Nick Swisher: Former Athletic

Thus it becomes clear that a move to San Jose would expand on the recent resurgence found in the A’s organization last season and should be the favorite option for the team in the future. If it doesn’t work out, they can always change their name to the San Jose Athletics of Oakland.

The Changeup

By: Matt

My colleague makes some good points about the low turnout of fans in recent seasons. Without fans a team cannot pay its players enough to be competitive. Additionally, without many fans, it is hard to attract players to your team.

That being said, in the years since 2005, the A’s have had only three winning seasons: 2005, 2006 and 2012. It takes a special kind of person to support a team when they have a culture of losing so Oaklanders can be forgiven if they are not buying tickets every night to watch a below .500 team. But in the 2012 season, the A’s played well and made the playoffs on a remarkable run, and what happened? The fans showed up and the A’s had their highest yearly attendance in 5 years. It’s no coincidence that in ’05, ’06, and ’12, the A’s averaged 1.92 million people per year, while in their losing seasons they averaged 1.57 million. If you play well, they will come.

The 2012 Oakland Athletics

The 2012 Oakland Athletics

The way that this debate has drawn out for so many years shows a few things. One, the Giants territorial claim has merit and the commissioner is serious about upholding those rights. And two, though San Jose may be a good place to put a team financially, members of the Oakland community are serious about keeping the A’s.

The idea of “territory” might seem silly to some, but the San Jose Giants have been around since 1988 and have built up a following. They have won 6 class-A league titles in that span and helped to develop more than one hundred big league players. The Giants are serious about keeping San Jose as part of their territory in the same way that the Red Sox would be adamant about blocking an expansion team in Connecticut.

It will be interesting to see if the fans show up for the 2013 season. Coming off a good year that did a lot to build up Oakland pride as well as returning fan favorites like Coco Crisp and Grant Balfour should help boost attendance. But there is only so much of an argument you can make for staying if fans don’t show. It will also be up to business leaders in the Oakland community to come together to put a plan for a new stadium or a renovation of the Coliseum and the surrounding area that shows investment in the community and seriousness about keeping the team around. There is opportunity for all in a new stadium in Oakland, but if Wolff has already made up his mind about leaving he may not see it.

So, what do you think? Should the A’s stay put or move to greener (and golder) pastures? Vote and leave your comments below.

Buster Posey vs. Clayton Kershaw – An Extended DebateImage

The Fastball

By: Ryan

While Ned Colletti has had a fairly quiet offseason, signing only two players, his acquisition of Zach Greinke and South Korean Ryu Hyun-jin added over $180 million dollars to the books, raising the Dodgers projected payroll to $214 million. With a lot money being thrown around and a surplus of pitchers (the Dodgers currently have eight starters), the Dodgers find themselves in an interesting situation, as Clayton Kershaw will be due for a contract extension at the end of the season. Colletti has made a push to make the Dodgers contenders in 2013, but his work is far from over, as he still has one major job; Colletti needs to make the most important lockdown in the NL West by giving Clayton Kershaw a longterm contract extension.

Kershaw’s career with the Dodgers up to this point has led him to become one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues and the best left-hander in Dodger history since Sandy Koufax. After winning the Cy Young in 2011 with the pitching Triple Crown, Kershaw followed up his NL best performance with an equally dominant season. Kershaw’s 2012 season resume reads as follows: MLB leading ERA, NL leading WHIP, NL leading K, NL leading WAR, and the third best BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in the NL. Based on stats alone, it’s easy to see that Kershaw’s Cy Young runner-up performance was as equally dominant as R.A. Dickey’s season in 2012.

Kershaw’s control of the mound began in the two season prior to 2011 (his first two full seasons in the league). During these seasons, his ERA was under 3 and he averaged just under 200 K’s (198.5). He had a combined WAR of 9.9, all while pitching a combined 90 innings less than his most recent two season total. With four strong seasons completed, Kershaw has proven to be one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, making his longterm contract extension one of the safest bets in the Bigs.

Furthermore, Kershaw has proven his capabilities at the plate over the past two years with .225 (’11) and .207 (’12) batting averages. It’s not everyday that those numbers earn you praise at the plate, but those averages coupled with a two year total of 25 sacrifice bunts and a 20% strikeout per plate appearance ratio (nearly 15% less than that of Adam Dunn), show that Kershaw is no easy 9 spot. Good hitting pitchers are hard to come by and they have a significant impact on the game from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. Offensively, these pitches provide the runs they need to obtain/hold a lead in the game which consequently give the pitcher greater freedom on the mound. What’s not always apparent is the defensive impact that these pitchers have by forcing the opposing pitcher to work harder in order to get that normally easy out. This results in higher pitch counts and lower inning totals. Kershaw’s plate competancy combined with his pitching prowess make him one of the most valuable pitchers in the game two years running.

Posey, on the other hand, has had a very volatile first two complete seasons. Excluding the unfortunate incident in 2011, Posey’s first two full seasons, while impressive, still present some major question marks when considering him for a longterm extension.

His rookie campaign, in which he batted .305 and won the NL Rookie of the Year title, only had him playing in 108 games (mostly due to a May call up). The strongest offensive part of the season for Posey occurred in July and August, but were directly followed by his worse two offensive months, where he batted .233. This type of season naturally raises the question of longevity, especially with Posey being a catcher. Catchers are one of the most physical positions in the game, and as a result, many of them wind up facing major injuries in their careers. Between the three highest paid catchers in 2012, all of them have had seasons negatively impacted by injuries. Brian McCann batted a career low .230 in 2012 because he played through a shoulder injury that required offseason reconstruction. Joe Mauler played only 82 games in 2011 due to a difficult recovery from offseason knee surgery (among other health problems). Finally, Mike Napoli was forced to take a pay cut when the Red Sox discovered scarring on his hips during his post-contract signing physical. While the Giants have been attempting to protect the knees of their franchise catcher by having him play first base during the season, similar to Mauer, Posey remains predominantly a catcher, and as result, carries a larger injury risk compared to other players.

While pitchers can be just as risky, Kershaw has been fortunate to deal with only minor injuries not associated with his throwing elbow or shoulder. Kershaw battled with plantar fasciitis (inflammation in arch tendon of foot) and a hip strain, which put his health in question at the end of 2012. Yet, these injuries did not result in any major negative effects on his pitching mechanics, and both should be eliminated or manageable by 2013. Most importantly, Kerhsaw has lacked any sort of injury in his elbow or shoulder. This is in large part due to Kershaw’s plus form. ESPN posted an interesting article on pitching characteristics that cause extraneous strain on the shoulder and elbow, resulting in major injuries. Using many “good examples” from the article, Kershaw maintains an upright form, with a slight lean toward first base, and doesn’t let his elbow lag behind his rotation, thereby reducing the risk association with bad form.

The obvious rebuttal to Posey’s lackluster finish to his 2010 season is his most recent season, in which he finished .364 between September and October. There is no doubt that Posey’s second half was a necessity if the Giants were to pull ahead and into the playoffs, but it will be hard to match in the future by any player, let alone Posey himself. It must also be noted that Posey cooled off once the playoffs came around, batting a mere .200. Thus, while this regular season ending streak may serve as a testament to his longevity and potential, it comes after a yearlong break and raises the question as to whether this was an exceptional year or the norm.

There is no doubt that Posey is an integral part of the Giants lineup and one of the main factors that resulted in their two World Series Championships in three years. However, it is hard to determine what an average Buster Posey year looks like. Thus any contract made by Sabean will include a substantially larger amount of risk when compared to a similar contract given to Kershaw by Colletti.  Thus, Kershaw’s tenure has proven him to be the safer bet and similarly more deserving of the extension when compared to Buster Posey. The Dodger ace has consistency, solid form, and top of the rotation stuff which makes him the most worthy of a longterm contract (which I estimate at seven years/$185 million) all at the ripe young age of 25.

Other reads on this portion of the post can be found here, here, and here.

The Changeup

By: Matt

Buster Posey vs. Clayton Kershaw: a matchup that Giants and Dodger fans will see for many years to come. But for how many years is still up in the air. Both Kershaw and Posey are in their arbitration years, and both have been the subject of speculation for receiving a long-term contract extension. The two players represent the young stars of their franchise and the importance placed on developing young talent by the two teams in the last few years. While the Dodgers have recently been blessed with some very deep pockets due to a new television deal and new ownership not named McCourt, there has to be a ceiling somewhere. It is likely that both players will receive long term extensions in the next year, but it makes more sense and is more important that the Giants extend Posey than the Dodgers extend Kershaw.

No one has meant more to the Giants than Buster Posey. The first-round draft pick shot up the minors quickly and joined the big-league squad in late 2009. Posey hasn’t stopped hitting since being called up, batting .314 with a .883 OPS in his young career, highlighted by his MVP award in 2012. His defense and pitch calling has been solid as well and the only real question has been his durability and health. I don’t have to remind you of the violent collision at the plate in 2011 that derailed Posey’s season and the Giants with it. However, Buster did everything right in the offseason to get himself in shape for 2012, and Bochy worked some lineup magic to get him 610 plate appearances. Posey started 2012 slow, but got better as he got healthier and more comfortable. Despite two world series rings, an MVP and a Rookie of the Year, Buster Posey has has actually only played one full season. Chew on that for a second and it’s easy to think that the sky is the limit for this young man. Bochy was able to limit Posey’s innings behind the dish by giving him time at 1st and DH, a practice that will probably continue for the rest of his career and allow him to get playing time in almost every game while saving his knees. But this is not necessarily bad, as Hector Sanchez has a good bat at backup, and Brandon Belt has shown some versatility by getting some playing time in Left field.

Another thing that Posey had going for him in 2012 was the lineup around him. In 2010, the team was full of “castoffs and misfits,” and the only rock was Posey batting cleanup. In 2012, it was a different story, and the lineup got better as the year went on. With Pagan, Scutaro, and Melky/Pablo getting on base for him, and Pablo/Pence providing some protection, pitchers had to go after Posey and he was able to make them pay. The only player missing from last year’s top 5 will be Melky, but the Giants actually got better after he left, posting a 26-12 in the regular season after he was suspended. They also clearly were able to get it done without him in the postseason, posting an 11-5 record on their way to the title.

Going into the 2013 season, the Giants will have two players making more than $20 million in the last year of their contracts: Barry Zito and Big Time Timmy Jim Lincecum. Both players, though important to the Giants in winning the World Series two out of the last three years (it’s still awesome just to write that) will probably be looking for new teams come the end of the season. Zito, though he has had his redeeming moments recently, is still probably the worst contract signed by Sabean, and Lincecum, barring a complete turnaround is probably due for a huge contract reduction and likely a new team. While some players will likely receive raises from arbitration and the team will have a decision to make on Hunter Pence, the Giants will be going into the 2013 offseason with a lot of wiggle room in their budget, and with Posey set to receive another raise due to arbitration, it would behoove Sabean to lock Posey up long-term.

So how do you evaluate what kind of contract to give Posey? Well, the Joe Mauer contract would be the obvious place to start. Mauer received his extension coming off an MVP season of his own and received $23 million per year for 7 years on top of his previous contract. Since the deal, Mauer has faced troubles and hasn’t lived up to expectations, and the Twins have suffered with him. The main difference is that Mauer received his contract after 5 full seasons with WARs of 2.5, 5.6, 3.6, 5.3, and 7.6, while Posey has only had one full season, posting WARs of 3.7, 1.3, and 7.2. While the MVP, 7 WAR seasons at the end of those lists look similar, Mauer had been more consistently good, while Posey has not. Though it seems counter-intuitive, this is the reason the Giants should act now. Mauer and his agents had every right to ask for the huge contract in 2010 and were able to get it, while Posey, though he has had one fantastic season, will not be able to ask for as much. It is likely that if the Giants act before Posey puts up another monster season (which he will), the Giants will be able to get Posey locked up during his prime years for under $20 million a year.

The problem with giving Kershaw a long term extension is that by every right, he should get the biggest contract of all time. CC Sabathia will make $23 million in 2013 and Johan Santana will make $24 mil. These seem like decent starting points, but Kershaw has had a better start to his career than either of them. My colleague has just pointed out all of the things Kershaw has going for him, so I will cede to the previous post to show just how good he actually is. So, what kind of contract must the Dodgers offer him? $25 mil would be a starting point, but even that might seem too little considering that they just gave Zach Greinke about $23.5 million a year. Greinke is good, but he is not nearly as talented or reliable as Kershaw, who is and will be a perennial Cy Young candidate. So, where do you draw the line? $28 a year? $30? Considering the money that the Dodgers have been throwing around, Kershaw has every right to ask for it and look elsewhere if they won’t give it to him. The new money from the Dodgers owners has to have a limit, and their offseason moves might actually hinder them from resigning their most important player. The Red Sox contract dump that the Dodgers ignored will certainly help them next season, but in the long run, it may be looked at as one of the worst moves by a general manager in baseball history. Not only are most of the players they took on past their prime, but their contracts will more than double the Dodgers payroll from what it was in 2012. There has to be some limit to what ownership will provide, but the question will be whether they will be able to squeeze another $30 million a year out of Magic Johnson’s ego.

So, who do you think should receive the long term extension? Kershaw or Posey?

Leave your comments below.

Hello sports fans!

Welcome to Fastball-Changeup. This blog is the brainchild of two friends, Golden Bears, and rivals. We hail from the Bay Area and L.A. and owe allegiances to different teams but share a respect for the game of baseball. With this blog we want to bring two different and usually opposing perspectives to the issues of the baseball world as they happen to provide both sides of the issue. The fastball portion of the article will generally be the normal or accepted argument while the changeup will follow with a different take. Both perspectives will be offered and we’ll leave it to you, the readers, to decide which is right.

Hopefully we won’t get as heated as a Giants-Dodgers rivalry, but you never know what is going to happen once you step on the field.

Image

Play ball!