So, nothing has happened in the past five months, right?
I’m sure our tens of readers have missed us, but unfortunately both Ryan and I got a little sidetracked with work and other things going on in our lives. The reason for restarting this is more to give myself an outlet than anything else, but if you want to come along for the ride, welcome.
We left off at the all-star break and we are now at the end of the season, the Red Sox beat the Cardinals in the World Series, and the hot stove is burning up. I will likely follow up with some pieces retrospectively looking at our previous fastball/changeup arguments and looking at which side was closer to the mark, but for now the reason that I wanted to start writing again is simple, I miss the promise and the possibility.
This past year in baseball showed that anything is possible in this game. The Red Sox were the worst team in 2012 and the best in 2013. The Giants won the World Series in 2012 but were mediocre for the entire year. Teams like the Marlins and Mets in “rebuilding” years still entertained with phenoms like Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey. And teams that spent big in the offseason such as the Nationals and Blue Jays put up mediocre seasons despite being “all-in.”
The offseason is the least interesting part of the year to most fans, but to a stathead like me, there is no better time to run wild with projections, hypotheticals and trade talk about how a team can improve, which moves are “good” or “bad” and how best to construct a roster for the short term and the long term.
There are plenty of places you can look to find analysis on whether the Yankees can succeed without Cano (they can) or the A’s can compete without greatly expanding payroll (they can) or the Dodgers can buy themselves a championship (they can’t), but I am hoping in subsequent pieces on this site to delve a little deeper into both the statistical and human side of this game and why we find it so compelling.
Baseball is a business, but in any business there are multiple reasons and motivations that any action is taken. A capitalist works to optimize profit, while a community bookstore might be interested in teaching kids the joy of reading. A sabermatrician is interested in optimizing wins, while a regular fan might just want to see their favorite player because he has a great nickname and his kid likes to dress up in a panda hat. This site is called Fastball/Changeup because it was started as a way for my friend and me to argue and discuss an issue from two different sides. In the past, you have seen both sides taken to an extreme for the case of argument and then been left to decide for yourself which side was more compelling. While it is easy to write from just one perspective, it doesn’t always tell the whole story. There are always multiple reasons and motivations in baseball and in life, and going forward I will do my best to analyze all of those reasons and find that middle ground here.